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[2] Real world examples of retrospective gambler's fallacy have been argued to exist in events such as the origin of the Universe. In his book Universes , John Leslie argues that ”the presence of vastly many universes very different in their characters might be our best explanation for why at least one universe has a life-permitting character”. [3] Daniel M. Oppenheimer and Benoît Monin argue that ”In other words, the 'best explanation' for a low-probability event is that it is only one in a multiple of trials, which is the core intuition of the reverse gambler's fallacy.” [2] Philosophical arguments are ongoing about whether such arguments are or are not a fallacy, arguing that the occurrence of our universe says nothing about the existence of other universes or trials of universes. [4] [5] Three studies involving Stanford University students tested the existence of a retrospective gamblers' fallacy. All three studies concluded that people have a gamblers' fallacy retrospectively as well as to future events. [2] The authors of all three studies concluded their findings have significant ”methodological implications” but may also have ”important theoretical implications” that need investigation and research, saying ”[a] thorough understanding of such reasoning processes requires that we not only examine how they influence our predictions of the future, but also our perceptions of the past.” [2] Another psychological perspective states that gambler's fallacy can be seen as the counterpart to basketball's hot-hand fallacy, in which people tend to predict the same outcome as the previous event - known as positive recency - resulting in a belief that a high scorer will continue to score. In the gambler's fallacy, people predict the opposite outcome of the previous event - negative recency - believing that since the roulette wheel has landed on black on the previous six occasions, it is due to land on red the next. Ayton and Fischer have theorized that people display positive recency for the hot-hand fallacy because the fallacy deals with human performance, and that people do not believe that an inanimate object can become ”hot.” [17] Human performance is not perceived as random, and people are more likely to continue streaks when they believe that the process generating the results is nonrandom. [18] When a person exhibits the gambler's fallacy, they are more likely to exhibit the hot-hand fallacy as well, suggesting that one construct is responsible for the two fallacies. [14] The difference between the two fallacies is also found in economic decision-making. Br world football.Você vai precisar que o vendedor ofereça o IMEI do dispositivo ou número serial para verificar o status e garantir que não é um iPhone roubado.
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