Yet Hill gave only a stingy 20 million to 1 to a postman in Glasgow who bet that Elvis would one day appear riding a UFO that he crashed into Loch Ness, clattering into Nessy in the bargain. Here is another way of thinking about 5,000 to 1. Last fall, a few unhinged evangelicals prophesied that the rapture would begin within a month of the blood moon of Sept. 27–28. (A blood moon is a red-tinged lunar eclipse.) This augury prompted the Irish bookmaking concern Paddy Power to perform an in-house exegesis of our final day. “[A]fter much study of the Book of Joel from which the claims are interpreted,” the bookmaker’s spokesman said, “Paddy has installed September 28th—the shortest price, 200/1—to be our last.” He added helpfully, “If it’s value you’re looking for, September 24 is currently available at 500 to 1, while any date in October is 250 to 1.” In sum, a large and profitable bookmaker gave odds that the world would end that were roughly 10 to 25 times shorter, depending on your date, than 5,000 to 1.
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