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that more productive firms are more likely to export and can pay higher wages), or that the act of exporting leads to more wage inequality. The evidence suggests that both factors are present and hence that trade can widen within industry inequalities.[45] Research on the impact of increased competition from China on the US gender wage gap indicates that the gains were higher for women than for men. The driving force behind this was partly that manufacturing sectors, which were hardest hit by competition from China, were relatively more male labour intensive, and also that men faced relatively higher barriers to enter into services sectors compared to women. Combined, these factors lead to higher wage and welfare gains for women than men.[50] Conversely, and perhaps counter-intuitively, the gender wage gap could widen when trade expands sectors which are relatively more female intensive, as appears to have been the case in the US following the introduction of NAFTA.[51] However, it is hard to predict, a priori, the geographical pattern of economic activity. The impact of trade liberalisation on regional inequality depends on each region’s specific geography, on the existing structure of economic activity,[53] and on the trade-offs between trade costs and benefits from agglomeration. For example, if high tariffs are reduced for an industry which is located in a particular region, then the direct effects on that region will be larger. In the longer run one might suppose that, all else being equal, regions with better access to foreign markets may emerge as economically stronger regions, and thus that trade may deepen spatial inequalities. On the other hand, comparative advantage changes over time, and industry-region combinations which are economically strong now, may face rising competitive pressure as these changes occur. Figure 3: Is the distribution of richer and poorer Travel to Work Areas in the UK linked to international trade? Interesting also is the presence of regional multiplier effects. There is evidence that tradable sectors and exporters pay higher wages and the expansion of exports leads to the creation of jobs in other non-tradeable sectors, through a ‘local employment multiplier effect’.[65] Evidence for the US suggests that, on average, for every 10 manufacturing jobs created in a US city there are 16 additional jobs created in the wider economy. In the ‘innovation sector’ the multiplier effect may be much bigger with up to 40-50 additional jobs. Related work for the UK suggests much smaller multipliers where, for every 10 jobs created in advanced industries, a further 6 jobs are created in the wider economy.[66] However, it is important to note that getting government intervention right is tricky: governments may lack sufficient information, may be subject to capture by interest groups, and may lack policy flexibility in various dimensions (time, place, sector). Bad policy can create further distortions and problems. In addition, policy in response to trade, is not necessarily the same thing as trade policy.
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